Virginia has seen a surge in early voting – and leaders in both parties say they think they’ve gained an advantage.
While early voting has favored Democratic candidates in the past, Republicans think things may be starting to even out.
On the eve of Election Day, more than 1.4 million ballots have come in either through in-person early voting or mail-in ballots. That compares to just under 1.2 million in the governor’s race in 2021.
Why? Political analyst Stephen Farnsworth pointed to a name that’s not on the ballot to explain the surge.
“President Trump is very, very effective in energizing activists on both sides. The high level of feelings about the president – positive and negative – have really led to higher turnout in elections during his time in public life, and we’re seeing that intensively so this time around,” he said.
Virginia Democrats were the first to push for earlier voting opportunities, as Republicans were often resistant.
But in his winning 2021 bid, Gov. Glenn Youngkin encouraged his party faithful to not be left behind and hand Democrats an instant advantage.
“It’s a great advantage to a party to have higher levels of early voting, because then on Election Day you can concentrate on the people who haven’t voted yet and to get them to the polls,” Farnsworth said.
So, who is benefiting from the 2025 early voting bump? Both parties have their own spin.
Fairfax County GOP Chair Katie Gorka thinks the texting scandal involving Democratic attorney general candidate Jay Jones energized Republican voters.
“Turnout is key, and what this has done, what we are seeing is that it has made some Democrats less excited about the election, so we see them staying home. And it has made Republicans angry or frustrated, and so they’re coming out where they might not have come out otherwise,” she said. “So, where I think you’re really going to see the surprise is the turnout numbers.”
The early vote climbed first and most in Republican congressional districts.
But Fairfax County Del. Dan Helmer, who helps lead the Democrats’ campaign to grow their House majority, said he isn’t worried about that. He pointed to intensely competitive House of Delegates races and the fact that Democrats are competing in all 100 House districts.
“Remember, we are competing in Republican-held districts,” he said. “So, frankly, I am excited about the fact that Democrats are showing up to vote early in Republican districts.”
Some of the biggest early voting numbers have come in areas with hotly contested House of Delegates races.
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