Forecasters say a possible “super El Niño” could form in the coming months, raising concerns about global temperatures, hurricanes, drought conditions and other extremes. But what does it mean for the D.C. region?
As a reminder, El Niño is a natural climate phenomena that can impact weather, temperature and natural disasters around the world.
Storm Team4 Chief Meteorologist Doug Kammerer says this year’s El Niño could be one of the strongest we’ve ever seen, and it was the main factor he accounted for when making his summer outlook forecast.
How will a strong El Niño affect the D.C. region this summer?
Normally, southern states from California to Florida get more rainfall during an El Niño.
Kammerer said the extra Gulf moisture will make for stormy conditions in the South this summer, and there’s potential for tropical storms to come in and work their way toward the D.C. area.
“That could mean some much needed rainfall in our area, and I do think we’re going to switch out of the drought and into some pretty rainy conditions for us,” Kammerer said.
How many hurricanes can we expect this season?
During El Niño events, which happen every two to seven years, we tend to see slower hurricane seasons.
Kammerer said he expects there will be nine to 13 named storms and four to seven hurricanes. He forecasts that one or two of those hurricanes will be major.
How many days of extreme heat will we get in the D.C. area this summer?
The D.C. area typically gets cooler-than-average temperatures during El Niños. Kammerer said it’s still going to be a hot summer, but there won’t be much extreme heat.
“I’m not expecting temperatures over 100 degrees,” he said.
But while there won’t be extreme heat, the will be plenty of humidity.
“That’s not fun for anybody and actually could lead to problems as far as overnight low temperatures go because they could stay very warm … not allowing us to cool all that much,” Kammerer said.
In all, he expects we’ll get 36 to 46 days of temperatures in the 90s, which is below average.
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