Keeping National Guard troops in D.C. through early 2029 could push the cost of the deployment toward $4 billion, according to researchers who found the Guard had no measurable impact on violent crime, homicides or gun crimes.
News4 reported this week that the Guard is expected to remain in the District through the end of President Donald Trump’s second term, over the objections of some local D.C. leaders.
Trump has repeatedly claimed his administration’s actions, including the deployment of the Guard, have made D.C. dramatically safer.
“Now it’s got virtually no crime. We call it crime-free,” Trump said during a dinner outing in D.C. on Sept. 9, 2025.
But D.C. police data show violent crime has continued in the months since that statement. Since Sept. 9, police have reported 2,158 violent crimes in the District, including 77 homicides and 787 gun crimes. Violent crime reported to D.C. police so far this year is up slightly, by 2%.
A new analysis from the Center for American Progress, a progressive think tank, found the Guard deployment has not had a measurable impact on violent crime.
“This was never about reducing crime, especially not violent crime,” said Chandler Hall, who wrote the study. “This has been a show of force without any evidence to bear that it’s actually working.”
The study examined National Guard deployments in D.C., Los Angeles and Memphis and used three separate analyses to determine whether the presence of thousands of Guard members changed crime trends in those cities.
Researchers found crime already was declining before the Guard deployed to those cities. Hall said the study specifically looked at whether the Guard accelerated those declines.
“If there was an acceleration in that trend, these tests would have found that and then also associated that with the National Guard deployments,” Hall said.
Hall said the highly visible Guard presence in D.C. may have reduced some opportunistic property crimes, such as cellphone thefts or purse thefts. But researchers said they found no effect on violent crime.
“There has been no effect on violent crime, homicides, or gun victimizations, and yet it’s costing taxpayers billions of dollars,” Hall said.
The cost is also a central issue.
The Center for American Progress analysis said the deployments could cost taxpayers more than $1.7 billion through the end of this year, based on congressional estimates. If the D.C. deployment continues into early 2029, researchers told the News4 I-Team the total cost could more than double, approaching $4 billion, which assumes current Guard levels near 5,000 in D.C.
“This is ineffective,” Hall said. “This is not doing anything to make people safer, and yet it’s costing taxpayers billions of dollars.”
The News4 I-Team asked the White House about the deployment extension, the added cost and the findings in the study. Given more than a day to respond, the White House did not answer.
Some D.C. leaders, including Council Chairman Phil Mendelson, have said repeatedly that they want out-of-state Guard troops removed from the District. A lawsuit from D.C. Attorney General Brian Schwalb challenging the deployment is still working through appeals.
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